Playoff Potential: An Update on ATXFC

It’s August 1^st.  Welcome to the final 1/3 of the season Verde friends.  You may remember that following our loss to the L.A. Galaxy, I took a look at some historical results and kindly asked that some folks CALM. THE. FUCK. DOWN. And y’all, I’ve got to be honest: I feel vindicated.

Two months ago, I laid out two goals for Austin to achieve by this time to be in position to make the playoffs and host a home match:

• Win Copa Tejas
• Have at least 36 total points

Mission resoundingly accomplished. Austin’s run over a difficult nine game stretch that featured six matches away from Q2 Stadium should really be talked about more. The Verde & Black went 6-1-2 (20 points), with five of those victories coming on the road. Those road wins included beating Montreal despite being down a man for the entire second half, going down 2-0 at Colorado only to win 3-2, and handing Atlanta United it’s largest home defeat ever.

So now the conversation has shifted from “What does Austin need to do to make the playoffs” or even “What needs to be done to secure a home playoff match” to “What does Austin need to do to finish in the Top 2 of the Western Conference or potentially win the Supporters’ Shield”?

Keep in mind that Austin FC plays 7 of their last 11 matches at home.

As with our analysis from June, for the purpose of this exercise, I will only be using the 2019 and 2021 seasons as they are the only two which have played out under current MLS rules to this point.

HOW TO FINISH IN THE TOP 2

First off, if you’re wondering why the focus on the Top 2, it all has to do with playoff positioning and home matches. Finishing in the Top 4 of your conference guarantees a first round home playoff match. But being in the Top 2 guarantees home field advantage in the first two rounds. So how does Austin FC snag one of those coveted two spots?

Stay the course.

Thus far this season, ATXFC has averaged 1.9 points per game (PPG). If Austin were to keep that average through the final 11 matches, they would garner another ~21 points in the standings, finishing the year around 65. Historical comparisons show that’s more than enough to guarantee at least 2nd place.

The caveat here is that it may not take more than 55 points to garner 2nd place this season in the West. Austin FC has a built a 9 point cushion between itself and 3rd place, where Minnesota United and FC Dallas are sitting on 35 points. Even if one of those teams averaged 2 PPG for the rest of the year, which is highly unlikely, the Verde & Black would still only need 14 more points to finish in 2nd.

Basically what I’m telling you is this: don’t make plans to leave Austin until at least Halloween weekend.

THE SUPPORTERS’ SHIELD CONTENDERS

Now we’re talking! If you’re new to MLS, the Supporters’ Shield is a recognized trophy that is awarded to the team with the most points at the end of the season. It’s a way of rewarding the best regular season club and comes with some amazing benefits, such as:

1. A cool trophy
2. Home field advantage throughout the playoffs, including MLS Cup
3. A guaranteed spot in next year’s CONCACAF Champions League

In summary: You want to win the Supporters’ Shield. But winning it does not guarantee playoff success. Since 2000, only five teams have pulled off the Shield/MLS Cup double. So what does Austin FC’s path to the Shield look like? First, let’s look at the competition.

There are just four teams with 40+ points right now. At the top of the list is LAFC, who not only lead the Shield race but also have a game in hand on both Philadelphia and Austin. And considering the big money moves that the Angelinos have made to bring in Giorgio Chiellini and Gareth Bale, they have to be considered the favorites.

Meanwhile Philadelphia is looming large thanks to their amazing home field advantage. The Union are unbeaten at Subaru Park this season and have only lost twice on the road, though they have a total of 9 draws which is far and away the most of any team on this list. Not finishing off a few games may end up costing Philly in the end, however they remain the favorites to finish first in the East.

Why?

Because I expect NYCFC to fall off a bit. Taty Castellanos, the Pigeons’ best player and leading goal scorer, has been loaned to La Liga side Girona. This should significantly reduce the firepower in the NYCFC attack of the four teams in Shield contention, I believe they are the least likely to finish at the top of the table.

I’ve been using 2019 and 2021 as historical comparisons throughout this series, however I don’t think those years are good comparisons for a Shield analysis because of the uniqueness of setting points records. In 2019, LAFC set a new points record to win the Supporters’ Shield with 72 points. In 2021, New England eclipsed that with 73.

It’s completely possible for LAFC to reach the 70+ point mark this year. They would need to average 1.8 PPG the rest of the way, which is below their 2.18 PPG mark so far the season. But you must keep in mind that LAFC still has to play road matches at Real Salt Lake, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Minnesota, and Portland. Of those teams, only Houston isn’t currently either in or on the cusp of making the playoffs. There are 18 points available to LAFC in those matches, and they would be doing great to snag 10. So while their team is undeniably good, it would take something special to run away with the Shield race.

The other real contender standing between Austin and a trophy is Philadelphia. The Union are one point above Austin FC and have a much easier remaining schedule than either Western Conference contender. Only 4 of their remaining 11 matches are against teams currently above the playoff line, giving the Union ample opportunity to snag points. Given their schedule and form, a minimum of 65 points seems like a lock, with 68 or more in play.

THE PATH FOR AUSTIN FC

I’m going to level with you. This won’t be easy and I would only give Austin a 1-in-10 chance of pulling off a Supporters’ Shield. But if there’s a way, the target has to be 70 points. That would put enough pressure on LAFC to keep things going until Decision Day. How do we get to 70 with Austin FC currently sitting on 44 points?

There are 7 home matches against San Jose, Sporting KC, LAFC, Portland, RSL, Nashville, and Colorado. The LAFC game in particular is a quintessential “6 pointer” and is a must win.

21 points are available from those 7 home games. The goal needs to be 18.

We’re at 62.

This would leave Austin FC looking for 8 points out of it’s remaining four road matches. Those games are at Minnesota, Nashville, Seattle, and Vancouver.

THE UPSHOT

If you take one thing from this article, let it be this:

Austin FC is going to the playoffs and is extremely likely to have home field advantage through at least the first two rounds.

That would make this Year 2 a resounding success. But I’m not going to fault anyone for dreaming bigger now that we’re here.