OK Verde family, it’s time we have a serious chat. Because what I’m about to say will not be met kindly by many, yet it needs to be said. So here goes:
CALM. THE FUCK. DOWN.
Yes, Austin FC had a four-point month and are back in fourth place. Yes, Austin FC got blown out by the Galaxy heading into the international break. Yes, the team has looked a bit lost at times since April ended. And still, I’m here to tell you again:
CALM. THE FUCK. DOWN.
This isn’t Europe. Every game doesn’t need an overreaction the size of Texas. This is MLS and teams will struggle. Championship teams even. Don’t believe me? Let’s walk through the numbers.
THE BASICS
The Verde & Black are currently fourth in the Western Conference, sitting on 24 points. They are a mere five points behind LAFC for first and one point back of FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake.
So, what does that mean historically? First let’s understand a couple of key things:
- In 2019, MLS moved to a playoff system where seven teams from each conference qualified for a single elimination knockout tournament. The top seed in each conference receives a round one bye while seeds 2-4 host home matches against seed 5-7.
- MLS has only been able to implement this current format twice, in 2019 and 2021. 2020 was an abridged season due to COVID and playoffs were expanded that season to accommodate for lost games.
For the purpose of this exercise, I will only be using the 2019 and 2021 seasons as they are the only two which have played out under current MLS rules to this point.
THE POINT TOTALS
In the two seasons that we are analyzing, two key data points emerged:
- 3-of-4 MLS Cup participants finished the year sitting in 4th place in their respective conferences
- Each MLS Cup participant played at least one home playoff match
The MLS Cup for those seasons were as follows:
- 2019: Seattle (2nd West) defeated Toronto (4th East)
- 2021: NYCFC (4th East) defeated Portland (4th West)
Austin FC’s current point total through 14 matches is outpacing three of the four previous MLS Cup participants. Meaning that if the club’s pace of 1.7 points per game holds throughout the year, Austin should expect to finish around the 58-point mark, which would be plenty enough to secure a first-round home match.
“But Uncle Tony P., what if the team backslides? Couldn’t we miss the playoffs?”
Look, anything is possible. But it would take a collapse of historic MLS proportions to do that. Here’s why.
As you can see, the cutoff for the 7th and final playoff spot has been right at 48 points. Austin is halfway to that total already with 20 games to go, thus the club would only need to average 1.2 points per game to hit the 48-point threshold. Quite frankly, that’s not asking for much.
THE EBBS AND FLOWS
All these numbers lead back to the inevitable question of current form and how Austin FC struggled through much of May. To which I respond with an emphatic one of these….
History shows that MLS Cup participants under the current format have all struggled for long stretches during their campaigns. Let’s look at each team’s worst run of play.
2019 MLS Cup Champs: Seattle Sounders
10-games, 2 wins, 10 points
2019 MLS Cup Runner-Up: Toronto FC
13 games, 2 wins, 10 points
2021 MLS Cup Champs: NYCFC
10 games, 1 win, 7 points
2021 MLS Cup Runner-Up: Portland Timbers
7 games, 1 win, 5 points
Family, this is what a league built on parity looks like. I know a lot of y’all live and breathe other leagues that have no playoff structure and a few big teams which dominate the entire season. That’s fine and dandy. But you have to recalibrate your understanding and expectations when discussing MLS.
This league starts making sense when you realize and accept the fact that this league makes absolutely no sense at all.
Embracing the chaos is a must for fan survival. Flying off the handle with bad takes after every win or loss isn’t the way and will certainly lead you to unneeded health scares.
THE SCHEDULE
We’ve got 20 games left before the MLS Cup playoffs begin. Those matches are split evenly for Austin between home and road. However, there’s a big caveat. Coming out of the international break, ATXFC will play 6-of-9 games away from Q2 Stadium, meaning things may look a little rough before relief comes. Realistically, the club should have two goals for those nine games in June and July:
- Win Copa Tejas
- Secure a minimum of 12 points
I’ll revisit the table and point accruals after this June/July stretch of games to see where Austin FC finds itself. The good news is that of those upcoming six road matches before August hits, four come against teams currently outside of the playoffs. If ATX can find 12+ points in the next nine matches, the club should be sitting pretty at 36+ points. This would lead to a final 11 game run that includes seven matches at Q2 Stadium, where Austin could really make some waves and push for a home playoff match.
THE UPSHOT
This is MLS. We’ve only just begun the 2022 roller-coaster and the Verde & Black find themselves in one of the front cars. Unless this ride goes completely off the rails and Austin FC falls out of playoff contention, do me a favor family:
Pour yourself a drink and CALM. THE FUCK. DOWN.
Uncle Tony P.
Uncle Tony P. is a lifelong Austin FC supporter and overall handsome son of a bitch who always has a full supply of mustard on hand for his Verde friends.