I first off want to apologize to our loyal readers. Since I was not proficient in CONCACAF Champions League rules (because it’s CONCACAF), I did not realize that Montreal (or Toronto/Vancouver) are not able to use MLS spots to qualify for the CONCACAF Champions League. As a result, the 3rd place race with Montreal only matters for hosting the MLS Cup Finals not for CCL for the next season. Then, LAFC, Philly, Montreal, and Orlando can all win MLS Cup, and Austin FC would qualify for CCL. That provides us with a decent shot of making CCL even without winning the MLS Cup.
At this point, one more Austin FC win from the final two matches (@ Vancouver and home to Colorado) would clinch the 3rd best American MLS record. Frisco and NYCFC have a magic number 1 and the Red Bulls have a magic number of 2 here. Since Frisco plays at Colorado on the afternoon of the 1st well before our match in Vancouver, the 2 seed in the West may be locked up before we enter BC Place for the nightcap against the Whitecaps.
As a result, I am choosing to spend much of this column about teams we could face in the first round of the playoffs, as we will be hosting either the 6 or 7 seed. Frisco has enough points to avoid the 7 seed and likely enough to avoid the 6 seed. Kansas City, Houston, and San Jose have been eliminated. As a result, the rest of the article will examine the possibility of playing the rest of the conference in the first round of the playoffs. We also created on our odds here at The False 9 since we can use the current trends and our observations over 538’s computers that thought Hillary Clinton was going to be President.
Nashville SC
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Home to Houston, @ LAFC
Projected Final Points: 51 (13 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 1%
Results against Austin this year: W 3-0 at home, D 1-1 away
Comments: Nashville is a team that we frankly want in the 4-5 game. While last Saturday’s match involved a rotated squad on our end (and no Walker Zimmerman on their end), Nashville has been in strong form lately. I expect them to beat Houston at home and getting a result against LAFC wouldn’t shock me. It seems more possible that they will end up as the 3 seed than the 6 or 7 seed at this moment.
Portland Timbers
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Home to LAFC, @ RSL
Projected Final Points: 50 (12 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 5%
Results against Austin this year: W 1-0 at home, W 2-1 away
Comments: Portland is another team that we frankly want in the 4-5 game, and they seem likely to end up there. Having picked up 13 points in the last 5 matches, Portland is hitting their late season stride. With LAFC already clinched home field advantage throughout the West and Portland’s strong form, I expect them to beat LAFC at home and then draw at RSL on Decision Day.
Minnesota United
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ San Jose, Home to Vancouver
Projected Final Points: 46 points (13 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 31%
Results against Austin this year: W 2-1 at home, L 1-0 away
Comments: Maybe Minnesota will come out of its tailspin after the International break. However, a Saturday night trip to chaos agents San Jose is not the easiest place to rebound from their recent slumps. I would expect them to lose in San Jose and face a critical decision day match against Vancouver. It would not surprise me to see that match end in a draw, which may end up knocking both teams out of the playoffs. With our both teams recent form, Minnesota is a decent option for the first round of the playoffs.
LA Galaxy
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ San Jose, RSL at home, @ Houston Dynamo
Projected Final Points: 48 points (13 wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 29%
Results against Austin this year: W 4-1 at home, W 1-0 away
Comments: The LA Galaxy have the advantage of having a match in hand on most of the field. However, their match advantage is at San Jose in the California Clasico at Stanford Stadium. San Jose already won in Carson earlier this year, and the Galaxy haven’t won at Stanford since 2014. The Galaxy have improved enough that I think they will snatch a draw on Saturday night, but I’ll be sure to stay up and watch (9:08 PM kickoff in the only match of the weekend). Then, I expect them to beat RSL at home and draw Houston on the way on the final day of the season. Hopefully that’s enough to put the Galaxy into the 3-6 game vs Frisco.
Real Salt Lake
REMAINING SCHEDULE: @ LA Galaxy, Home to Portland
Projected Final Points: 44 points (11 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 20%
Results against Austin this year: W 2-1 at home, L 3-0 away
Comments: Real Salt Lake gifted a road win to FC Cincinnati last week after this midweek meltdown here in Austin. In a week where RSL needed points to sneak into the playoffs, they came up empty handed. I think their current spiral will continue with their final matches against teams that look they actually want to be in the playoffs in the Galaxy and Portland. However, I have learned to never count RSL out. On paper, they seem like a strong matchup for the first round, but I have learned to never underestimate their ability to park the bus in a key playoff match.
Vancouver Whitecaps
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Home to Austin, @ Minnesota
Projected Final Points: 42 points (11 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 3%
Results against Austin this year: TBD at home, L 3-0 @ Austin
Comments: The Whitecaps have been strong at home lately, and it would not surprise me to see us lose up there next week, especially if the Rapids have already taken care of business against Frisco. However, I think our men in Verde can pull out a draw, and we have already predicted a Whitecaps draw in Minnesota. That won’t be enough to get them the 7 seed, but two wins might be enough.
Seattle Sounders
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Home to Cincy, @ Sporting KC, Home to San Jose
Projected Final Points: 43 points (13 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 10%
Results against Austin this year: W 3-0 at home; 1-1 Draw @Austin
Comments: We do not want to play Seattle in the first round of the playoffs even if it’s a down year for them. Seattle will be missing a number of key players for their CCL rescheduled match against FC Cincinnati next Tuesday. With 12 draws from 31 matches this year, I would expect the Knifey Lions to somehow find a way to get a draw in the Pacific Northwest (and then watch them draw the Fire at home, or something silly like that). Seattle then has to go to a resurgent Sporting KC where I frankly expect them to lose. They should beat San Jose at home on Decision Day but it will likely not be enough.
Colorado Rapids
REMAINING SCHEDULE: Home to Frisco, @Austin
Projected Final Points: 42 points (11 Wins)
TF9 Odds of Playing Austin in the 1st Round: 1%
Results against Austin this year: L 2-3 at home, TBD @ Austin
Comments: Colorado is one of the more predictable teams in this unpredictable league this year. They tend to be strong at their Rocky Mountain home (at least you can see the Rockies most days from Dick’s Sporting Goods Park) and fairly weak away. I expect their momentum will be enough for them to pick up a win at home against Frisco but likely not enough to get a result at McKalla on Decision Day. Even 2 wins is likely not enough for the Rapids to clinch the 7th seed.
We’ll see if my predictions are right here in the coming weeks! I’ll likely have an updated post around October 4th before Decision Day.