By the Numbers: Wolffball Retreat

Welp, here we go again.  Austin FC finds themselves on the wrong side of the playoff line after another poor run of form, having secured just four points in the last six games.  And as we here at The False 9 have been pointing out for nearly a year now, this is not new.  On August 26^th, 2022, Austin defeated LAFC 4-1 before a raucous Q2 Stadium crowd.  Since that evening, the Verde & Black have played 62 MLS regular season matches (68 would be 2 full seasons).  Here are the results:

Wins	Losses	Draws	PPG
18	27	17	1.14

No matter how someone may try to explain things like injuries or roster construction, there is but one conclusion to be made about these results in a league built on parity:

They aren’t good enough!!!

What has changed?  Why is this team losing so much and seemingly playing boring, uninspired soccer for the better part of two seasons?

Please allow me to take you back in time to July 23, 2019.  On this day, Austin FC announced that Josh Wolff would become the club’s first ever head coach.  That day’s press release contained the following quote from Wolff:

“Our stated ambition is to establish ourselves quickly within MLS as a vibrant, attacking side and we want to reflect the diverse, competitive, and passionate makeup of our club’s home, both on and off the field.”

Most anyone who has paid attention to this team since the start of 2023 will question where the words “vibrant”, “attacking”, “competitive”, and “passionate” have shown up on the field on a weekly basis.  Sure, there’s the occasional 4-3 thriller like the one we had against San Jose earlier this season, but there are far more examples of lifeless performances like Saturday’s 2-0 road defeat to a hapless Sporting Kansas City club.

And when I say hapless, that’s being generous.  Y’all, Sporting entered the match with one league win since March 30^th and absolutely dog walked our boys up and down the field.  How bad was it?  I can show you in one graphic from @mlsstat on Twitter (I ain’t calling that platform by any other name, Elon).

This game and graphic are merely microcosms of the backwards trajectory this team has taken.  Since the start of last year, Austin has 1,013 shot creating actions, one of the lowest numbers in the league.  In fact, the two closest teams to that number are Nashville (1,003 SCAs) and FC Dallas (1,014 SCAs).  Would you like to know what those two teams have in common?

They are each looking for a new head coach.

But let’s dive deeper, because the graphic from the Sporting KC match above shows an even bigger issue: an inability or unwillingness to pass into the opponent’s box.   Over the entirety of the 2023 season, Austin finished 26^th of 29 teams in completed passes into the penalty area.  Guess where Austin ranks so far in 2024?  That’s right, 26 of 29.  Only two teams have fewer completed passes in the opponent’s box than Austin since the start of 2023: CF Montreal & Nashville SC.

This team’s offensive regression under Josh Wolff has been astounding and I’m not sure most people realize how bad it’s gotten.  Here’s some key metrics to take a gander at and where Austin ranks in MLS.

	Goals	Expected Goals	Shots	Shots on Target
2022 (28 teams)	3rd	9th	16th	18th
2023 (29 teams)	T-12th	17th	T-19th	17th
2024 (29 teams)	Last	27th	T-26th	Last

Two things jump out to me.

1. The pundits were absolutely, unequivocally correct when they said Austin FC over-performed their 2022 metrics, and
   
   
2. This team has gotten worse in the exact areas that Josh Wolff said would be the on-field focus when he was hired.  There is no vibrancy.  There is no attack.  And we are certainly not competitive.

The numbers somehow get bleaker when you look at the home/road splits per game this season.

	Goals per game	xG per game	Shots per game	Shots on Target per game
Home	1.80	1.41	10.5	3.30
Road	0.45	0.66	6.18	1.54

Now there’s one big caveat to call out here: May 11, 2024 at FC Dallas.  That night Austin had 19 shots and 4 on target.  When you remove that one match, the true nature of our road attack shows fully:

	Goals per game	xG per game	Shots per game	Shots on Target per game
Road Excluding FC Dallas Game	0.40	0.51	4.90	1.30

Austin FC has gone on the road 11 times this year.  7 of those 11 games have yielded zero or one shot on target.  Folks, I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure it’s hard to score goals if you don’t shoot the fucking ball at the goal.

Look, we here at The False Nine all understand that playing at home is easier than playing on the road.  But being on the road is in no way, shape, or form supposed to dictate this much how our team plays.  The numbers back up what the eye test has said all year, which is that the shooting boots get left on the tarmac at ABIA.

Yes, we acknowledge that this team badly needs help in the attack.  Yes, Osman Bukari should give us a boost.  But history has shown that just getting new players doesn’t make a coach better.  The system has been in place for four years now and it’s simply not working. Offensively speaking, we’ve gotten worse in every major category over the last two years.  This team doesn’t create chances, rarely shoots, and certainly doesn’t find the back of the net enough to be competitive for a full season. Wolffball has completely neutered one of the best attacking midfielders this league has ever seen in just 24 months.  Tack on the road misery and two serious questions need to be asked:

• Other teams in MLS have been just as bad as Austin FC. Why are they are making moves with their head coach and we aren’t?
  

• If Josh Wolff is supposed to be an attack minded, creative head coach that puts players in positions to score, but isn’t doing that, what is he still doing here?

Anthony Precourt and Rodolfo Borrell owe this fan base answers and they owe them fast. The 2024 season can still be salvaged. We just need leadership to do the same thing they did with Emiliano Rigoni: admit the mistake, upgrade at the position, and let’s move forward together.