Playoff Potential: Actually, Now Might Be a Good Time To Panic

Yesterday, my esteemed colleague Uncle Tony P. laid out the case for why Austin FC fans should remain calm after the team’s first rocky patch of the season. It was a perfectly reasonable take, backed by data, and argued well enough that even the most skittish among us probably felt their blood pressure drop a few points after reading it.

But you don’t read The False 9 because you want to be reassured. No, you come to our site because… actually, I don’t know why anyone reads our claptrap. Maybe you just like chicken and chicken-adjacent content? Regardless, I’m here today to give you the unvarnished truth as well as a bit of advice. And my advice is this:

OK, that might be a tad hyperbolic. I’m not saying that we should start mentally preparing for another postseason without the verde and black. But I’m not not saying it either. For reasons both mathematical and historical, Austin FC fans have cause for concern regarding the team’s likelihood of hosting a playoff game (or even making the playoffs at all). But before I get into that, I think it’s necessary to put the team’s performances in the first part of the season into context.

Through 14 matches in 2022, Austin FC has a goal differential of +10, good for third in the Western Conference. That’s very impressive, even after discounting the first two matches where they outscored their opponents 10-1. If the current pace holds, they’ll surpass 2021’s scoring total sometime in early July. Exciting! But if you look at the team’s expected goal differential, the picture is far less rosy.

Expected Goals, Expected Goal Differential, and Expected Points

While it’s fair to criticize the xG model on a per-shot or per-match basis, studies have consistently shown that xG differential over a given period of time is a greater predictor of future success than simple goal differential. And currently, Austin’s xGD is -1.1 (per the American Soccer Analysis model), which is seventh in the West. Based on the quality and quantity of shots attempted and conceded, Austin is lucky to be in their current position. And while it’s entirely possible that the team’s luck may hold out for the rest of the season, relying on luck isn’t a proven strategy for continued success.

“OK,” you may be saying, “but seventh is still good enough for a playoff spot, and we just made it through a tough stretch of games. Why worry?” Well the fact is that, even taking May into consideration, Austin FC’s schedule only gets harder from here on out.

To understand what I mean, allow me to introduce the concept of expected points. The gist of xPts is that you can take a team’s expected goals and expected goals against in a given match, run thousands of computer simulations based on that data, and derive the average expected points earned by each team for that match. You can find a pretty good primer on xPts here, but essentially it’s just a way to measure teams based on performance rather than results. Add up everyone’s expected points for the whole season and you’ve got yourself a way to rank teams in a more predictive manner than simple points or goal differential.

Currently, Austin’s expected points is 18.7 based on the ASA model, which is seventh in the West. We can then normalize this number to say that Austin has earned 1.33 expected points per match.

To date, Austin’s opponents have earned 1.31 xPts per match in all of their games this season. To put that into perspective, since 1.33 xPts per match is currently the cutoff for a playoff spot  in the West, Austin’s average opponent in the first 14 matches has been slightly below playoff caliber. You may be tempted to say “yeah, but their expected points are so low because some of them got whooped by Austin” but remember: xPts measures performance, not results, and currently Austin has a negative expected goal differential. On average, Austin has been outperformed by their opponents through the first 14 matches.

For the rest of the season, Austin’s remaining opponents have averaged 1.39 xPts per match, or roughly equivalent to the xPts that Real Salt Lake has earned to date. The difference between 1.31 and 1.39 isn’t huge, but it at least disproves the idea that the team’s hardest challenges are behind them. Last month was rough, but the next four months won’t be a cakewalk either. And when you look at the list of teams they still have to play, this makes intuitive sense: Nashville (twice), Frisco (twice), Colorado (twice), New York Red Bulls (currently leading the league in expected points), Montreal, and Atlanta, plus RSL and LAFC a second time. Indeed, on paper the five-match stretch of Colorado-Atlanta-Houston-Frisco-NYRB is actually tougher than what Austin faced in May when they earned a measly four points. The rest of the season is a gauntlet from which they will get very little respite.

At this point you may be rolling your eyes and saying “theoretical performance is one thing, but the only things that count in this league are wins and losses (and draws, I suppose). We’re in fourth place, and we’ve got those 24 points in the bank, and Uncle Tony made me feel like we’re sitting pretty.” Well, let’s see about that…

What Can History Tell Us About Austin’s Playoff Chances?

While it’s true that Austin FC would have to earn far fewer points per match in the remaining 20 games than they earned in their first 14 to fail to qualify for the playoffs, such collapses are not without precedent. There have been 12 teams who have earned at least 24 points after their first 14 matches since the current playoff format was instituted in 2019 (where the top seven teams from each conference qualify after a 34-match schedule). And in each full season, one of them has gone on to miss the playoffs entirely:

• In 2019, Houston had 24 points after 14 matches but only earned 16(!!!) points the rest of the season, finishing 10th in the West
• Last season, LA Galaxy had 25 points after 14 matches, earned 23 more the rest of the way, and limped to an 8th place finish

So what does all this mean? It means that for the first three months of the season Austin FC has been overperforming while benefitting from an easy schedule and a healthy amount of luck. While it’s entirely possible that their luck holds out, it is at least equally possible that they drop down to Earth a bit and their results fall more in line with expectations. And if their fortune starts to turn at the same time as the schedule becomes tougher? Well, teams in our situation have missed the playoffs before.

Anyway, how’s your blood pressure?