Welcome to the latest feature here on the False 9, Magic Number Watch! Since many of us here are also baseball fans, we wanted to apply a baseball concept to MLS, known as the magic number. Around this time of year, baseball fans start looking towards the magic number to know how many games their team needs to win and other teams need to lose in order to clinch a playoff spot or division title. In the MLS, it gets a bit more complicated with wins being worth 3 points and draws eliminating 2 points from a team’s maximum point total, but here at the False 9 we are going to give it a go and make it a regular feature until Austin FC confirms its playoff seed.
Here’s the current Western Conference Standings at the All Star Break:
| Rank | Club | Points | Austin Magic Number | GP | W | L | T | GF | GA | GD | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 51 | LAFC number to eliminate Austin from gaining the top seed: 25 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 9-1-2 | 7-3-1 |
| 2 | Austin | 45 | N/A | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 5-2-4 | 8-3-2 |
| 3 | Dallas | 36 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 6-3-3 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | Minnesota | 35 | 21 | 24 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 5-3-4 | 5-6-1 |
| 5 | Salt Lake | 34 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 7-2-3 | 2-6-4 |
| 6 | Nashville | 33 | 16 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 3-3-5 | 5-5-4 |
| 7 | Portland | 33 | 16 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 5-2-6 | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | Seattle | 32 | 18 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 7-4-1 | 3-8-1 |
| 9 | LA | 30 | 19 | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 6-5-1 | 3-6-2 |
| 10 | Colorado | 30 | 19 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 7-2-3 | 1-7-3 |
| 11 | Vancouver | 30 | 16 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 6-3-3 | 2-7-3 |
| 12 | Houston | 25 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 4-4-4 | 3-9-0 |
| 13 | San Jose | 24 | 10 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 4-3-5 | 1-7-4 |
| 14 | Kansas City | 23 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 4-6-2 | 2-8-3 |
In the fourth column, I have created the Austin Magic Number. To calculate the magic number, we take the maximum number of points a team can get (3 per match) and multiply by the number of matches remaining. For example, our chaotic rival in San Jose have 24 points after last night. They can theoretically win their final 10 match and get to 54 points. Then, we take 54 and subtract it by Austin FC’s current points (45). To avoid tiebreakers (until Austin clinches them), we add 1 to the magic number. As a result, San Jose’s magic number is 54-45+1=10.
For every Austin point, the numbers will decrease by the number of points Austin FC gains. For every match that a chasing team does not win, they get deducted by 2 points for a draw and 3 points for a loss. For every match where Austin wins points, everyone’s numbers will be reduced by 1 or hopefully 3. In future weeks, I’ll just list the chart below in actual magic order rather than the full table as I did today.
Magic Number Table (From Closest to Eliminating to Furthest):
- Sporting KC-6 points
- San Jose-10 points
- Houston-11 points
- (4-6) Vancouver, Nashville, and Portland-16 points
- (7) Seattle-18 points CLINCH Playoff Spot
- (8-10) LA Galaxy, Colorado, and FC Dallas-19 points CLINCH First Round at Home
- (11) Salt Lake-20 points
- (12) Minnesota-21 points CLINCH 2nd Seed
At this moment, the 7th lowest magic number is 18 from Seattle. As a result, that is the current number that Austin needs to clinch a playoff spot. Every week where Austin wins and that team loses is 6 points, so 18 is not far off for a magic number especially at this point in the season.
The brings us to the reality that next Saturday’s return leg against Sporting KC is a Wooden Spoon eliminating 6-pointer! Unlike last year, where Austin FC was a Wooden Spoon contender until nearly the end of the season, our men in verde could secure a finish out of the league’s basement with 9 matches to go with a win at home over a team we beat on the road just 8 days ago. With 45 points so far, it is almost surely likely that the club has done enough to avoid the Wooden Spoon, but it would be fun to clinch it at home against SKC. Last year’s win over SKC also clinched avoiding Last Place in the West, but that was on Match Day 33.
Having this opportunity on Match Day 25 is another reminder of how special this season has been. Despite last night’s disappointing draw, any of us should be thrilled to have 45 points through 24 matches with a 9 point margin on Frisco with a match in hand. Let’s rebound and knock the magic numbers lower next week!